Weekly Forex Forecast: February 26 – March 2 2018 – Forex Trading Guide

Welcome to our weekly forex market analysis call and today we are looking for at the week of February 26th to March the 2nd 2018 and just a quick disclaimer before we get started this is for educational purposes only trading is a risky business so please be careful with your money all right so now let’s dive in and we’ll we’ll start with a look at our forex factory calendar here and we are on the 26th ok so we’re starting off oh this is not the right week alright so here we go perfect so we’re starting off Monday with ECB President Draghi speaking and also there are a lot of or you know other Bank members speaking as well so basically with these ones now that the monetary policy stance is changing from central banks we just have to be mindful of the comments that come out so any comments that point words the solid state of the economy and also point out concerns about inflation may be overshooting or anything that suggests that the banks may raise rates that will be considered positive for the currency so that’s what we need to pay attention to Tuesday we have CPI numbers and then we also have German booba present Weidman speaking again this will have an impact but here Draghi speech will have a bigger impact here but we do have a fetcher Powell is testifying so this will have an impact so we saw previously we saw Bank of England they were testifying about the monetary policies which had an impact now this one fetcher Powell testifying will also have an impact on the market so basically the market will just now that they have switched the leadership role the market will be paying attention to what the forward stance would be for the fad because we have been seeing interest rate hikes are they going to continue with that or with the change of leadership things are going to change so that’s the question that everybody will be paying attention to and then core durable goods orders will also have an impact on the US dollar consumer confidence number this is an important number that we do need to pay attention to and it will generally have an impact so if it comes out positive like it’s expected then that would be positive for the US dollar same thing here ANZ business confidence number for New Zealand will have an impact on a New Zealand dollar here as well and then going into Wednesday here not a whole lot of important read data we do have GDP preliminary GDP numbers for the US which will be important and this one here Chicago PMI numbers and pending home sales numbers so these numbers will be important PMI numbers are always important because they are leading indicators that generally lead to retail sales so these numbers will be important we have crude oil inventories which will generally impact US dollar than Canadian dollar as well and private capital expenditure for Australia we have a bunch of PMI numbers coming out on Thursday out of the eurozone again these will have an impact on the euro manufacturing PMI number for British pound that will be important as well so a lot of PMI numbers coming up so that will be important and then again we have fetcher Powell testifying so expect volatility in the US dollar as a result of these speeches and more Isum manufacturing PMI numbers for the US that will be impactful okay and then on Friday a very very key speech will be from prime minister Theresa May here for a British pound here so brexit will be a concern going forward or it already is a concern so right now they’re going through the nose and British Pound has really benefited from the positive sort of the the whole scope of the negotiations right now it seems very positive so as a result of that the British Pound has benefited as well the data that has been coming out of the out of UK has been positive as well so overall British Pound has been good however anytime there are political issues like this things don’t tend to go as smoothly as you know they may appear so just keep an eye on these braixen negotiations and the comments that come out of it right now with Prime Minister Teresa Mae’s speech it will be market moving so if we hear comments about them reaching agreements the two countries reaching agreements in terms of trades and market and that kind of stuff that will be positive for for the especially the British Pound it will also be positive for the euro but overall it’s a British Pound that is getting impacted more by these negotiations so that’s what we’ll have to pay attention to however if there are any comments whether they are in Theresa May speech or otherwise about how they may not be able to reach the agreement or they may not be able to negotiate the right type of terms that will be detrimental for the British Pound so we’ll have to keep an eye on that we also have construction PMI numbers of course those will be important and we have another major thing here Bank of England governor Carney speaking so what Prime Minister Theresa May says or does in regards to brexit as the last what Bank of England governor Carney says both of these will have an impact so it looks like Friday will be a big day for the British Pound so if you are trading the British Pound on Friday just be mindful of that because we could see a lot of volatility in the pound as a result of that and then GDP numbers for Canada which will be important so overall not a ton of critical data coming out so but we do have some central bankers so central bankers have been in the focus right now and what they say does have a big impact on the market so just be mindful of that all right so that is our that’s our fundamental so now let’s take a look at what we have in terms of our charts here all right so what we have seen with the Euro it’s sideways so last week we looked at this range bound move and this week as well it’s sideways went to the high and then went back down now so I’m looking for it to come back towards the bottom of the range into one level or one 2200 level and then it could bounce off so for now I’m gonna trade this as a range my bound move so when price comes into the bottom of the rage arranged at 120 200 I’m looking for a bounce up and if it goes into the top of the range I’m looking for a bounce to the downside so one thing we do need to keep in mind would be any breakouts from the range so general behavior with the range bound market is sell at the top and buy at the bottom right however if the price let’s say comes down here and starts to do this breaks down then we are looking for a further move to the downside but we do have to wait for that breakout for now it is just going sideways there’s really no clear market direction we have gone into our high here so if you take a look at the left-hand side and we see that we are into this resistance area price had trouble here before it really sort of dropped further from this previous downtrend and now we are at that level again so at this point we are just in no-man’s land in terms of market direction for the last one to five weeks here we haven’t really broken out of this range so now we need to see is the price willing to break out of the range at some point price will break out the rain the range we just don’t know which direction it’s going to break out and as a result of that we just have to be mindful when the price gets to these these end of the boundary of the ranges of if the price comes back in to 120 200 we have to watch out for that so basically scenario will be the bounce back into the range once it comes to 120 200 and if once it goes to 125 50 level then I’m looking for a bounce back into the range but I’ll be watching out for any breakouts if it breaks out to the downside then I’m looking for next move to be into 12050 area so those that’s what I’m looking for but for now waiting for price to come in and bounce off of one 2200 so range bound for euro dollar in terms of the pound here we are also we’re also looking at sorry just a quick question can we hedge it I’m not sure what like how I would hedge it I was just wait for I would just trade the range and once we see an indication of breaking out of the range you could so you probably what you’re talking about is a straddle so if you mean can you like put a sell order at the bottom what I’d be concerned about is price spiking through it and then pulling back in I don’t typically do straddle orders because of that very reason there’s a lot of times what happens is price will break through because there are so many stops on the other side of it price will break through that level and then pull back and like this right price will punch through and go back into the range and the purpose of really that pin will be to grab all the orders sitting there and then kind of continue on into the opposite direction so that’s why I’m not a big big proponent of straddling it like that I’d rather see a break of the range and then once the price holds below the range then we can sort of kind of continue on with that so similar to here where the price was just sitting below this level and once it broke through once this candle closed you can just take trade to the downside so that’s my preference but of course there are different strategies that you can use I prefer to just trade the range and wait for the breakout in either direction so with the British Pound here this one has also gone sideways we are in this level here so for now it is overall it is kind of pointing to the downside but if there is no real no real sort of direction here either because we do have this uptrend and now we are seeing this this pullback so it could be a pullback so we could just see one of these moves back into the bottom here into 135 80 so for now I am the weak here has been really not much the candle air is very very small so we had a bullish candle here which was not angling and now we have a higher or lower high and a higher low so it hasn’t really it’s and just inside candle with a little pin so given this situation I’m looking for price to my bias for British Pound and this is just my bias so just be mindful of that we have to watch what goes on my bias is that it breaks down a little bit I think things have been a little bit overly positive for the British Pound because everybody is optimistic that we’ll get these excellent brexit negotiations but like I said before these things rarely go well and I mean there was a reason there was you know brexit vote so having a soft practice brexit is unlikely in my opinion however things could change so that’s why we have to watch what the market does so what I am looking at basically is a retest of this one 3800 level and probably a squeezing like this and my target would be 135 80s I’m looking for price to come down into this 135 80 level and then potentially bounce off of this uptrend line so that’s my that’s how I’m viewing the markets I’m looking for further weakness in pound dollar in to 135 80 however we do have Prime Minister Theresa May speaking so on Friday this could be impacted so keep an eye on that aussie here aussie has been arranged bound here as well but this one is looking more bearish than what we saw with the euro here so for the last three weeks it has held this range but we have a lower high here so price is coming down and we all so have a double top so a few weeks ago we had a double top now prices moving lower so as a result of that I am looking for price to go further down so my bias for Aussie dollar is to the downside I’m looking for a break of this 7760 ish level here and price continuing into 7650 level and potentially even further into 7550 level so I’m looking for price to step down a bit into the next support or resistance level here this has been an important resistance level which has now turned into support so we do need to wake wait for the breakout of this level so what I would be looking for is one of these and then a break to the downside we do have to be mindful of this 7760 ish level overall my biases to the downside and the target for this would be 75 50 New Zealand dollar here similar situation I am looking for price to break down further so price has tested this resistance level several times now and only once did it try to break out to the other side and then reversed right away and with this one here I am looking for a further move to the downside we have had a bearish candle close so I’m looking for a move into 7180 level here that will be the first target and then the second target would be 70 50 level so basically waiting for price to are looking for price to drop so bias for New Zealand dollar would be bearish dollar cad here this has been a bit interesting so we have seen higher lows now surprise is moving higher but it hasn’t been moving high in a very sort of Astra in a very consistent manner so we are seeing kind of back and forth so it’s not as as weak as the Australian dollar for example or New Zealand dollar so for this one my bias is to the upside and again we need to see a break we are into this resistance level right now so we need to see a break of this and resistance that will or the support and resistance level has kind of played out several times but the bias is to the upside so what I’m looking for for dollar cad is maybe so right now we are in the middle of the candle here so maybe back into this 12550 level and then another move to the upside and finally a break to the top here so my target is 120 900 to the up sights of biases to the upside but it’s won’t be as smooth sailing as maybe Australia or Australian dollar a New Zealand dollar here so bias is to the upside and they’re commodity currencies as well so they tend to sort of move at the same time some expecting price to move up higher here it has found stuff so we have a higher low higher low higher low so and higher highs here as well it’s looking for it to move up further euro Swiss franc this one is it’s still in this downward trend here and now I am looking for price to basically again do another leg to the downside make another leg to the downside for two weeks here we have not seen it break the highs so now we have a lower highs as a sorry yeah lower highs and I’m looking for price to go down further into a 3 20 level here so the bias is to the downside for euro Swiss franc pound Swiss franc has been a little bit tougher than our euro but overall though we are still in so we still have this this downtrend here right but it could go up further so with this one I would be careful we do have a bullish candle closed as a result we could see price move either into 130 300 or 13250 so I would look for price to push up first and then do a drop but this one will be tied to whatever happens with the with the British pounds I would be careful trading this one so right now what it looks like is maybe a pullback in the so I’m kind of seeing it as this so looking for price to drop further but it like I said it could pull back into 130 250 or 130 3300 level and then drop from there so that will be my that would be the scenario that I’m looking for for me this is not the best pair to trade this week I am just I’m gonna look for other opportunities probably pound yen and pound dollar will be the better ones to trade instead of pound Swiss franc your Swiss franc I think is a better one compared to this this one here dollar this one is sideways so we have seen it be in this range or staying in this range for the last few weeks now and I am looking for price to potentially retest this level once again and do a double top type of formation so 9450 would be my target to the upside but it is range bound at the moment it hasn’t really gone anywhere in the last few weeks so this one may be another one where we just have to wait and see what the price does here but for now we did have a bullish candle close it did not manage to close above the previous high so it is not overly bullish but because there is still buying going on here we may see price push all the way up into 90 450 level and then drop so I’m going to treat this as a range bound move if the price goes into the hi I’m looking for a potential sell if it goes into the bottom here 90 180 I’m looking for a potential buy so trading this as a range bound market let’s take a look at the yen crosses now with the yen Here I am let’s see so the yen here we are making a lower high here so it’s not overly bullish very very small weekly candle close we have a pen on top so I’m looking for a break to the downside for this one like I said my biases I’m not overly bullish on the British Pound I am looking for four pound to face more hurdles as the whole talks negotiation talks continue so for me I am looking for further breakdown of this my target would be 140 320 level so I do want to see a break of this level of the 148 20 ish level and then I continued move to the downside so we do need to make sure that the price holds below this pin here or maybe 140 level and then I’m looking for a break to the downside so bias is to the downside for pound yen euro yen here the bias is also to the downside and the next target so the next target looking at is 128 50 here so this is we have last this is what we have last three weeks we have seen a downwards move we have a bearish pinbar here for the weekly candle close we are in two support here though this resistance turning into support so we do need to see a break of 130 but my bias is to the downside I’m looking for price to go into 120 850 level so looking for euro yen to drop a bit this one here Aussie yen we were bearish and it has come into this 83 30 level so the bias still is to the downside but as we can see price is struggling at that level and this is the where the previous support resistance is coming from price had struggled in this area before but the bias is still to the downside I’m looking for a retest of this 83 30 level and then looking for 8250 level to the downside so looking for price to draw further overall the bias still remains to the downside here but do keep in mind we are kind of coming in to these levels that are almost to the bottom here and also just to mention with Japanese yen strengthening so much there will be additional pressure or added pressure on on Bank of Japan to react so sorry looking at the weekly here we do have a bearish pinbar so I’m looking for price to go into 8250 and potentially even lower into 8180 level so there will be additional pressure or added pressure on Bank of Japan to intervene so they have said that they’re not likely they’re not going to intervene in the markets but the history that Bank of Japan has is of intervention so what could happen is if the Bank Bank of Japan is not very comfortable with the strength of their currency because if the currency is expensive the exports will drop and they don’t want that Japan is such a big exporting country that it would have material impact the strength of the currency has a material impact on their economy so as a result of that Bank of Japan does not want the currency to be high and before they would just go intervene in the market before really letting anybody know however there has been a lot of pressure on them to not do that everybody’s criticized them because it creates sudden moves in the market that nobody really likes or cares who cares about so as a result of that they have sort of stayed their hand in terms of intervention but the more expensive Japanese yen gets more we see drops and everything else against the Japanese yen the higher the likelihood of Bank of Japan intervention so generally will we see as Bank of Japan will just come and sell a whole bunch of yen and it will create this move to the upside and all the yen crosses so just be just be mindful of that because as the further it drops all the yen crosses drop the more the likelihood of Bank of Japan intervening in the market all right so the last one here is our dollar yen dollar yen we are still staying below this previous support level and now turning into resistance I’m looking for price to drop further and the target will be about 104 50 level right into this one here in this case we could see a push up into this to retest the support and resistance level again 107 80 level and then looking for price to test a 105 50 and then 104 50 after that so bias is to the downside for dollar yen as well all right any other questions or any other anything else you want me to look at first depends when to enter the trade I usually so I look at my weekly analysis at the beginning of the week just to sort of get a get a lay of the land and get an idea of what I’m looking at for the week to come and then based on how things play during the week because the news may come out and things may change market is dynamic so I look at the daily I do the daily market analysis and I look at the daily candle states and that’s when I would start looking at where to take the trades from but when I actually plays the trade I am looking at a lower down lower timeframe to go into the position but at the levels are coming from the higher time frame levels I hope that makes sense anything else um my what indicator do I recommend I personally don’t tend to use too many indicators what I do use our pivot points so these are pivot point levels and these green are pivot points and R 1 R 2 and s 1 s 2 levels so this is one of the indicators that I do like to use and then volume is another one that I tend to look at so I have a point in volume I would say will be the two that I personally prefer alright so I don’t see any other questions alright so that’s all I have if you so we were just talking about daily Market Analysis if you guys are interested in joining me for for the daily market analysis that’s part of trade room option that I have so if some if you want to join me in the trade um there is a private skype group where I share my trade ideas and analysis I also when I take live trades I send out alert so I normally put in where I’m entering the trade the entry level my stop loss level my take profit target and I also manage the trade so when I move my stops and the stuff like that so I send all of that information out and I also we also do daily market analysis so we have a similar call every night at p.m.

Eastern it’s recorded so if you’re not able to make it you can always you know get the call or get the recording of the call and if you join the trade room you will also you’ll be able to based on the daily market analysis call you’ll be will you’ll get the levels that I’m looking to take trades from so you can choose to take the entries that I’m taking or if you wanted to take additional trades we go through all the different crosses so you have levels for all those crosses to trade from you also get my pivot point indicator which is one I that I do reference in the trade room so you can join this on a monthly basis and the cost for that would be ninety seven dollars a month and you can go to trading with Venus Campos trading – signals for that or if you wanted a better price point I do offer some yearly and yearly options as well and these are the different links you can go to to access those alright so that’s all I have I will call it a wrap now so you guys have a wonderful rest of the weekend and I will see you next time

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